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The respite resulting from the end of fighting in Gaza is immense. Within Israeli borders, the freeing of surviving detainees has resulted in extensive joy. Throughout Gaza and the West Bank, jubilations are also underway as approximately 2,000 Palestinian detainees begin their release – although anguish remains due to uncertainty about who is being freed and where they will be sent. In northern Gaza, people can at last return to sift through wreckage for the remains of an estimated 10,000 those who have disappeared.

Ceasefire Emergence Against Prior Uncertainty

As recently as three weeks ago, the probability of a ceasefire looked improbable. Yet it has taken effect, and on Monday Donald Trump travelled from Jerusalem, where he was hailed in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he joined a prestigious diplomatic gathering of more than 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The peace initiative initiated there is scheduled to proceed at a meeting in the UK. The US president, cooperating with international partners, managed to secure this deal take place – contrary to, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Aspirations for Sovereignty Qualified by Previous Experiences

Expectations that the deal signifies the opening phase toward Palestinian statehood are understandable – but, in light of historical precedent, slightly idealistic. It lacks a transparent trajectory to independence for Palestinians and threatens separating, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the total ruin this war has produced. The absence of any timeframe for Palestinian self-governance in Mr Trump’s plan undermines self-aggrandizing mentions, in his Knesset speech, to the “monumental start” of a “age of abundance”.

The American leader could not help himself polarising and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a period of respite – with the hostage release, ceasefire and restart of aid – he chose to recast it as a morality play in which he solely reinstated Israel’s prestige after purported disloyalty by former US presidents Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration previously having attempted a comparable agreement: a cessation of hostilities linked to relief entry and eventual negotiations.

Meaningful Agency Crucial for Legitimate Peace

A initiative that withholds one side genuine autonomy cannot yield legitimate peace. The halt in hostilities and humanitarian convoys are to be welcomed. But this is not currently policy development. Without processes securing Palestinian participation and command over their own establishments, any deal risks freezing subjugation under the rhetoric of peace.

Humanitarian Priorities and Recovery Hurdles

Gaza’s people crucially depend on emergency support – and nutrition and medication must be the initial concern. But rebuilding cannot wait. Among 60 million tonnes of debris, Palestinians need support restoring homes, educational facilities, hospitals, religious buildings and other establishments shattered by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s transitional administration to succeed, financial support must be disbursed rapidly and security gaps be addressed.

Like a large portion of Mr Trump’s peace plan, references to an international stabilisation force and a recommended “board of peace” are alarmingly vague.

Global Backing and Future Prospects

Robust worldwide endorsement for the Palestinian leadership, permitting it to succeed Hamas, is probably the most hopeful possibility. The immense hardship of the recent period means the moral case for a resolution to the conflict is potentially more urgent than ever. But while the truce, the homecoming of the detainees and pledge by Hamas to “remove weapons from” Gaza should be recognized as favorable developments, Donald Trump's record provides scant basis to trust he will fulfill – or deem himself compelled to try. Immediate respite does not mean that the possibility of a Palestinian state has been brought closer.